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Ep. 144 - The Truth Behind Biden's Economy | State of the Union

Mar 13, 2024

The annual State of the Union address is often more of a pep rally than a sober assessment of the nation's challenges. Like a middle school class president promising better lunches and shorter school days, presidents use the speech to paint a rosy picture of their achievements and ambitious plans, glossing over the hard realities. 

 

But this year, the disconnect between rhetoric and reality was particularly stark, especially when it came to the economy. The president touted job growth and deficit reduction, but a closer look at the numbers tells a different story.

 

The Looming Debt Crisis

 

One glaring omission from the speech was any mention of the national debt, which many economists call a "fiscal time bomb." Interest payments on the debt now exceed the entire defense budget, yet there was no discussion of how to address this unsustainable trajectory.

 

While it's true that the current administration has spent less than its predecessor, the debt has still increased, and the small deficit reductions pale in comparison to the scale of the problem. Raising taxes on the wealthy, as the president proposed, would barely make a dent. Real solutions will require tough choices and bipartisan cooperation.

 

Jobs: Quantity vs. Quality

 

On jobs, the president highlighted impressive top-line numbers, but the reality is more complex. The official job reports have been consistently revised downward, suggesting they may be overstating growth. And a deeper dive into the data reveals that many full-time positions are being replaced by part-time work.

 

Private sector payroll data paints a less optimistic picture than the government's household survey. And despite the job gains, unemployment has ticked up and wage growth has slowed. For many Americans, the "healthy economy" touted in the speech feels far from their lived experience.

 

The Unintended Consequences of Regulation

 

Another concern is the impact of increased government regulation on the economy. While well-intentioned, history shows that intervention often hurts the very consumers it aims to help. Compliance costs get passed on through higher prices and reduced services. 

 

In the housing market, for example, new rules may provide short-term relief but could lead to higher costs in the long run. And in the banking sector, excessive regulation has all but eliminated free checking accounts and other consumer benefits we once took for granted.

 

Bottom Line

 

The State of the Union aimed to project confidence and tout wins, but it left many of the economy's structural challenges unaddressed. Partisan heckling and standing ovations along party lines underscored the divided political climate, while the Federal Reserve chair's reticence to speak hard truths to Congress highlighted the limits of the Fed's independence.

 

To make real progress, we need an honest reckoning with the numbers behind the spin. That means acknowledging the severity of the debt crisis, recognizing the limitations of short-term interventions, and having a frank discussion about the tradeoffs inherent in any economic policy. Only then can we move beyond applause lines and start charting a sustainable path forward.