Ep. 92 - Why Your Job Isn't Safe in the Fed's Hands

current events economy housing market Sep 13, 2023
Whatโ€™s Your 1 More Podcast
Ep. 92 - Why Your Job Isn't Safe in the Fed's Hands


The job market has always been a barometer for the economy's overall health. With numbers seemingly dancing in a perplexing ballet, we can't help but wonder: What is the true reflection of the current job landscape? 


The spotlight here is on the validity and integrity of the reported numbers, mainly from ADP and BLS. And the insights point to the fact that the Federal Reserve is coming for your job! 


The Confusing ADP Report and BLS's Revision


Are they just playing darts with numbers? Why is the ADP report so off the mark? 


It’s almost as if one could mindlessly throw a dart on a wall of numbers and come up with a more accurate estimate. This discrepancy in data challenges our trust in these authoritative reports, and we have to wonder, where are the checks and balances?


The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) holds a track record for being reliable, but even they can throw curveballs. The recent annual benchmark revision, which revealed an overstatement of jobs by about 25,000 a month, is alarming. 


Such discrepancies don't just fade away but have tangible impacts on the market, affecting decisions and perceptions.


The Federal Reserve's Role


It's no secret that the Federal Reserve bases most of its decisions on these reports. If the data is faulty or not timely accurate, how do these revisions influence their policy-making process? 


Could the Federal Reserve have taken different actions had they known about the softening market in real time?


As the country's largest payroll provider, ADP claims its data offers a representative snapshot of the entire private employment sector. However, with glaring inaccuracies, it’s essential to consider if they might not be as representative as they claim.


A Deep Dive into Job Openings


While the JOLTS report indicates over 12 million job openings at its peak, the reality is nuanced. With job postings often duplicated due to remote work trends and strategic listing by employers, it's challenging to gauge the actual number of unique job openings. 


This 'padding' of numbers presents a skewed reality. But seeing the larger picture, the increasing creation of part-time jobs at the expense of full-time positions suggests a deeper underlying issue. 


People are settling for lesser roles, possibly out of necessity, impacting their earnings and, by extension, their spending capabilities.


The Effects of Inflation


The rising cost of living, propelled by inflation, is forcing many to re-enter the job market. 


This phenomenon could be a double-edged sword: while it indicates a potential increase in labor participation, it's also a clear sign of the financial strain on households, and the Federal Reserve might need tightening policies that threaten people back out of those jobs! 


Bottom Line


Navigating the job market is no easy feat, especially with the veil of revisions and data discrepancies. 


As we strive for clarity and accuracy, one thing is clear: These numbers are more than just figures on paper; they represent livelihoods, policies, and the overall health of our economy. 


As consumers of this information, it's our responsibility to question, probe, and demand transparency.