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Quinton Harris: Welcome back to the What's Your 1 More podcast. I'm your host, Quinton Harris. Your dial into episode 265. [00:00:10] Welcome to the new year 2026. It is great to be back in the studio here. Uh, took a little break during the holiday, spend [00:00:15] some time with friends and family. Hope you all got a chance to do the same thing. You know, we've had some exciting news come out here in the housing [00:00:20] front.
I like to think of it as another headline. Maybe as far as like a 50 year mortgage [00:00:25] amateurization, um, you know, but it's another, it's another truth post that we had from President [00:00:30] Trump regarding, uh, the possibility of banding investors, institutional investors from [00:00:35] buying homes. Now, why is this relevant?
Why is this important? There's a theology. In our [00:00:40] industry that institutional investors are gobbling up single family homes, and that is preventing first [00:00:45] time home buyers. It's preventing affordability and it's causing more renters than it is homeowners, [00:00:50] thus affecting the American dream, right? We all know that that is, uh, kind of the goal of previous [00:00:55] administrations, including this one is the American dream.
Having people become homeowners. So sometimes when [00:01:00] things aren't going your way, you've gotta point to things, right? One of the things you point to is affordability. High interest rates that's been [00:01:05] pointed to inflation, you know, uh, a lot of finger pointing towards the previous administration and why we got to this [00:01:10] inflation.
Um, and then rates themselves, right? They, they've come down tremendously. Matter of fact, we're at some [00:01:15] all time lows considering 2025. We're at the lowest point of 2025. I shouldn't say all time lows, [00:01:20] but the lowest of the year in 2025. We got right at the very end. And we're kind of rolling into [00:01:25] 26 looking pretty good, but yet we're still not seeing enough traction of people [00:01:30] becoming homeowners.
So the next thing to look at is, hey, it's gotta be the investors, right? And when we say institutional investors, [00:01:35] we don't mean an investor like. Individuals. Like if you're a person that's buying investment homes, that's not who we're [00:01:40] referring to. We're referring to the REITs, uh, which are the real estate investment trusts, uh, companies like BlackRock [00:01:45] that you may have heard of.
You know, those are large hedge funds that are buying properties and putting 'em in a REIT so [00:01:50] that people can invest in them in the form of a, you know, like an ETF, right? If you wanted to buy into that [00:01:55] stock, you invest in that and they go handle all the work as far as buying, maintaining, sometimes they do commercial properties.
A [00:02:00] lot of those are in there, but there's also single family. And over the course of the last four years, there's been. [00:02:05] This theology that they're buying a and everything and they're preventing homeowners from, buying [00:02:10] properties at an affordable rate. And so yesterday being, um, Wednesday the 7th [00:02:15] of January, president Trump essentially reached out and said, I'm calling upon Congress to, [00:02:20] uh, essentially codify and ban institutional investors from buying single family [00:02:25] residence homes.
And, uh, he said, people live in homes. They don't live in corporations. So let's [00:02:30] talk about this for a minute. You know, when you take a look at these, you know, these institutional that I [00:02:35] referred to such as Home Partners of America, uh, Blackstone, you know, invitation Homes, [00:02:40] Tricon Residential, all of these took major hits yesterday in the form of a market [00:02:45] overreaction.
A lot of these institutions took hits in the form of 7% to 5% loss in the market. [00:02:50] And, and that's all based on, you know, some things that we think we can get done, right? So let's talk about it. [00:02:55] You know, you look at the fact that we talked about 50 year mortgages, right? And in 50 year mortgages, [00:03:00] we had this idea that's gonna create affordability.
Yes, we're still kicking the can down the road, but [00:03:05] that was almost three months ago. That post came out as long with that kind of push, and we talked about [00:03:10] why it would take a major reform of the Dodd-Frank Act. It, it's, it's not, it's, it's not [00:03:15] there. It's not going to happen.
And for whatever reason, we're still seeing a little bit of lingering of that, but the [00:03:20] reform is going to have to take place and, and that's not taking place. Now here we are talking about [00:03:25] institutional investors. Now, in order for this to be banned, there are some things that have to happen. And when you take a look at that, here's some of the things [00:03:30] that are, that are interesting about this.
And I think that, uh, one analyst described that this [00:03:35] was an excessive market overreaction, you know, because. Single family rentals such as [00:03:40] REITs, you know, they buy a modest amount of the homes off the MLS, that MLS homes [00:03:45] are gonna be your resale homes, right? And that means I'm a homeowner. I wanna sell to another person that's gonna end up on the [00:03:50] MLS.
A lot of your new builds don't end up on the MLS, and most of the acquisitions for those [00:03:55] REITs at this point are from the Home Builder channels. So what does that mean? Does that mean you're [00:04:00] gonna ban them from buying from home builders? And think about it, REITs come in, buy those properties that are [00:04:05] turnkey and then put renters in there.
And a lot of home builders have turned into these, uh, you know, [00:04:10] build to rents, BTRs. So my question becomes, do you start to ban the builders [00:04:15] from doing BTRs, right? Because what's the difference between an institutional investor and a builder that's, you know, national [00:04:20] that is publicly traded, aren't they an investor?
So that wasn't addressed. And I think you're gonna see some [00:04:25] pushback from, you know, the National Association of Home Builders, which is one of the largest lobbying firms out there. Are they gonna [00:04:30] be okay with this? And the answer is no. This is not going to happen. Um, the answer is also that. [00:04:35] When you take a look, you know, Redfin published a couple of data points recently that said, Hey, [00:04:40] listen, the year over year, if investor like penetration in the market is pretty flat, [00:04:45] right?
Meaning that Redfin said that, uh, you know, from December's release, investors purchased about 52,000 [00:04:50] homes in the third quarter of 2025. That's the only up 1% year over year. That's [00:04:55] pretty flat when we talk about statistics. And if you look at, uh, you know, those [00:05:00] purchases only accounted for about 70 per 17% of all the US home sales during that period, that third quarter, [00:05:05] right?
You could make an argument and say, well, that's 17% more than first time home buyers could get. But [00:05:10] do the prices fall? and the answer is no, they're not going to fall. This is [00:05:15] kind of going back to some of the people that we talk about on YouTube. They're trying to get click baits. They're trying to get people to buy into the [00:05:20] idea this housing market's gonna collapse.
You know, totality, formerly Core CoreLogic released the [00:05:25] data sets that showed. That we had increases year over year from 24 to [00:05:30] 25 in appreciation and the forecast of 4.3 for the entire country for [00:05:35] 2026. There's nothing being forecasted, a decline. There's nothing showing that this housing [00:05:40] market is sitting on a bubble and that it's going to decline.
And again, we go back to this. I feel like [00:05:45] sometimes we're beating a dead horse. We go back to this. Why is that? You've got demand, high demand levels, right? And if, [00:05:50] if you don't believe we have high demand levels, right, because the people on YouTube want to go, you know, there's just not enough buyers.
[00:05:55] There's plenty of buyers. This particular call to order from President Trump is actually speaking to the fact [00:06:00] of demand. He's actually stating that, saying, listen, we've got so many first time home buyers that wanna buy, but it's because these [00:06:05] institutional investors, they can't buy right? I think there's way more than that, and I'm not picking on him, but this is [00:06:10] just one of the things that he's showing that there is demand in the market and we've gotta satisfy that demand.
[00:06:15] The other thing is we don't have enough supply, right? There's not enough supply on the market. If you put inventory [00:06:20] trends and you look at 'em from now dating back to 2019, obviously COVID was a weird dynamic. [00:06:25] You go to 2019, we're still below those levels. We're below 2018 levels. So it is not an [00:06:30] idea of, Hey listen, we're oversupplied and under demand.
It's the complete opposite. We have more demand and we don't have enough supply. [00:06:35] You could also argue that the population and workforce has grown as well. And that's a whole nother argument [00:06:40] and a whole nother podcast. But the reality is we have more people wanting to be homeowners than we've [00:06:45] had before, and we don't have enough homes to supply that, which is why you're not going to see this housing crash that, [00:06:50] um, a lot of the doom porn guys, as I like to say on YouTube, like to click bait and get people to believe.[00:06:55]
But getting back to this with President Trump, I think what's interesting here is that he's trying, [00:07:00] right? And I think that's the important thing, whether you can get it done, whether these are feasible, [00:07:05] right? And I think there's a lot of things he's putting out there that just may not be feasible. 50 year mortgage is a great example.
It doesn't mean that [00:07:10] Bill ey won't find a way to get it done, but they're not gonna get it done like that. It's not going to happen [00:07:15] because of the, the manners that have to take place and a lot of the checks and balances have to go with it. I believe this is [00:07:20] another step forward, right? This is another, Hey listen, let's think about this idea.
Let's work towards [00:07:25] getting more affordability. And if this doesn't work, what comes from this? If the 50 year mortgage doesn't work, what comes [00:07:30] from that notion? What comes from these attempts? And I think again, it's the administration showing, listen, we're trying, [00:07:35] we're doing things that other administrations haven't done, and we're trying to put forth effort to have people become homeowners.
[00:07:40] And I think that that's really important and I think it's a great step in the right direction on here.
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Quinton Harris: one of the things we talk about, quite frankly probably way too much on this show is we talk about [00:08:45] interest rates and we talk about what's the outcome of these going to be and what dictates it right now.
And we take a [00:08:50] look at some of the labor markets. We know right now that the Federal Reserve has come out and said, Hey, we, it is all about [00:08:55] labor over inflation at this point. You have some Fed members that are saying, Hey, listen, inflation still could get hot, but [00:09:00] it's still labor driving it. Well, we got a recent report from ADP yesterday as well.
Not real favorable. And [00:09:05] that's the private sector, right? That's the one that drives a lot of the higher paying jobs. It didn't look real [00:09:10] good. And then if we look at the jolt report, which are the job openings report, right? And this was really important 'cause we [00:09:15] got a real eye-opener on that yesterday.
That report shows how many job availabilities or how many new postings, or how many [00:09:20] available jobs there are for people that came in significantly lower, significantly lower [00:09:25] than what was expected, meaning that. There's not a lot of job opportunities. Right. And then today we got [00:09:30] another follow up on that just this morning before we came on the show with continuing claims.
That's the amount of people that have filed [00:09:35] unemployment that are staying on unemployment, and that came in higher than expected. Those are both [00:09:40] signs of a soft labor market and a weakening labor market. It'll be rare. Very [00:09:45] interesting. Tomorrow morning, on Friday, when the BLS job reports comes out with the unemploy rate, all eyes will be on that.[00:09:50]
But if we continue this cadence of, you know, expectations coming in [00:09:55] below, you're going to see the Federal Reserve pivot, your pivot, excuse me. You're gonna see them make some decisions [00:10:00] that we've all been waiting on. And we are going to, continue to see the 10 year treasury go along with that? And that's important [00:10:05] because as that 10 year treasury drops, thus so do mortgage interest rates.
And that's something that we're gonna be focused on waiting [00:10:10] for affordability, seeing how that works, that helps people buy homes. Lowering interest rates dramatically will help [00:10:15] people buy homes. Because right now I can't tell you how many customers we talk to. They're all payment driven. [00:10:20] You know, in our industry, everybody has start to become payment driven.
Yes, it's rate, sometimes it's [00:10:25] always about that, but at the end of the day, it's that payment. Can they afford it? Right? The intoxication of having [00:10:30] the lowest rate, that's a personal thing, but can I afford that mortgage payment? That's what's [00:10:35] important, right? Because if you have a 5% interest rate but you can't afford the payment, that doesn't mean a damn thing, right?
[00:10:40] So it is always about that payment and I think that's what we're gonna start seeing some relief on in here. And there's [00:10:45] some states where, you know. Homeowner's insurance is adding to that property. Taxes are adding to that, and a lot of that [00:10:50] needs to be addressed as well. But I think when you take a look at what just happened here.
And some of the direction the [00:10:55] administration is going and some of the positive vibes they're putting out there about trying to create more affordability, they're gonna get it right at some point, [00:11:00] right? If you take enough shots, you're going to hit something. And so that's the one thing I admire about this administration.
They [00:11:05] are shooting their shots. They're eventually going to hit something to make it work. Maybe not yet. Maybe not tomorrow, but [00:11:10] eventually that's gonna hit and that's something positive. And I think it's just started in 2026. You know, we're starting to see [00:11:15] some serious momentum amongst the administration.
And let's not forget we got one of the best Secretary of [00:11:20] Treasury sitting in the background, Scott Beson, who is saying, listen, I am hell Ben, on getting this 10 year treasury down in [00:11:25] the range of 3 7 5 3 85. And we all know if he gets that down there, we're going to see that [00:11:30] magical five handle. On the interest rates at 5 8, 7, 5, kinda like our friend Dan Habib described on the show [00:11:35] two episodes ago.
So it's there and it's exciting, and I think it's time for us to say, listen, uh, it, [00:11:40] it's going to be a great year in 2026. You know, if you look at the NBA's forecast, you look at NARS forecast, you look at [00:11:45] everyone's forecast, they're predicting a banner year for 26 compared to the last two years that we've seen.
So [00:11:50] it's exciting and a great time to be in it. Now, what does it mean if you're a consumer. Well, there's a couple of things. Number one, [00:11:55] you might start seeing that musical chairs we've described where you start seeing multiple offers and now you've gotta [00:12:00] make a move. We're seeing a lot of traction right now in the new year.
People have New Year's resolutions and opportunities to say, I [00:12:05] want to go buy. I'm ready to make that move. It's time for my family to become a homeowner. They're doing it now, [00:12:10] but if you continue to say, well, we're gonna put off in weight, we're gonna see what home prices do. I can tell you this. I've been [00:12:15] doing real estate mortgages specifically for over 23 years.
I have never met a [00:12:20] buyer in my life, and I'm sure the real estate agents listening to this show could say the same thing. Never met a homeowner in my life. It was [00:12:25] like, man, I'm so glad I waited to buy this home. Not a one of 'em have ever said [00:12:30] that. Wonder why? Because real estate continues to go up. What they say is, I'm glad I got in the home.
Now. They never say, [00:12:35] I'm glad I'm waited Six months or a year. Never. Not ever. So think about that logic. When [00:12:40] someone says, I'm think we'll wait. We'll see what happens to home prices. You don't need to see what happens. Over the last seven, six [00:12:45] years, they've gone up every single year except the greatest real estate depression that's happened.
And that's a one-time thing. So [00:12:50] it's going to go up. You can wait and see, but I can tell you right now what's gonna happen. It will accelerate. [00:12:55] If interest rates drop, and that's something to think about, something to share with your clients. Hey, we're wishing you guys all a [00:13:00] happy 2026. Looking forward to everyone's success.
Looking forward to doing more episodes here on the show and [00:13:05] bringing in some exciting guests this year. So tune in to What's Your 1 More guys. If you like what you're hearing, please share this episode. [00:13:10] Check us out at YouTube at What's Your 1 More with the number one. We're gonna be back next episode, uh, with some [00:13:15] exciting information leading into 2026.
Look forward to sharing that with you guys. Till then, have a great one. We'll see the next episode of What's [00:13:20] Your 1 More/ [00:13:25] [00:13:30] [00:13:35]
